A United Ireland Referendum Must Not Become 'Another Brexit', Commentators Alert

A decade following the UK entered into a hasty public vote that polarised the country and triggered chaos, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.

The government and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is prepared.

That represents the warning from two prominent commentators from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.

Governmental Structures Not Ready

Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and seismic public vote.

"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gather momentum very quickly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains highly fragile."

New Title Aims to Encourage Dialogue

The team have analysed the political, financial and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They seek to provoke discussion on the matter with a tour of public talks that will take them to Westminster early next month.

"What troubles everybody, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.

"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose implications have not been clarified because then you end up with an extremely divided society where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won are uncertain precisely what it is that they have gained."

Governmental Mandate

Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would support.

Nationalist parties and other nationalists say such a time is looming, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and unionists play down the possibility, making it uncertain whether or when there might be a referendum.

Lack of Substantive Discussion

Political rhetoric for and against unification has obscured the absence of substantive discussion, stated McBride.

"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to realise it has largely not occurred. A great deal has occurred in scholarly circles but very few elected officials or activists are willing to participate with the basics. For instance, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"

Volume's Strategy

In the book, neither author supports unification or the status quo. They authors two essays that aim for neutrality in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument against, gathering economic and social data, previous instances and constitutional models.

Debates cover flags and symbols, duties, medical care, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to inform and stimulate discussion.

"There's huge interest in the topic but there is still lacking a discussion," said the writer. "Debate implies an acceptance of the idea that there may exist reasonable perspectives on either side."

Simultaneous Plebiscites

A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they favour unification but oppose increased taxation or adopting a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.

"The Irish government must work out what the offer from nationalist groups is beyond just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.

Possibility of Public Vote

McBride thinks a referendum in his era is likely and that it may take place suddenly. "It is possible just a reckless or a ill-advised or a incompetent government minister who declares: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"

Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid arguments, he said. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and somebody will eventually be defeated but both parties has possesses something to gain from the other's viewpoints."

Request for Broader Debate

Westminster needed to participate in the discussion, said O’Toole. "This is about your state. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish matter."